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Economy and Stocks
It is often very easy to fixate on the S&P 500 as if it were the only current proxy of the broad universe of stocks. Like the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it, the 500 has attained synonymy...
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Unextrapolating Bubble Expectations
No inflection is ever expected in the real economy since everything is always extrapolated in straight lines by orthodox economists using econometrics. Similar interpretations are being used in stocks,...
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Janet Yellen, A Bear Late and a ‘Dollar’ Short
For policymakers a sense of timing doesn’t appear to be among the highest qualities demanded. That certainly applies to almost every economic proclamation that has come out of any central bank...
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Stock Bubble And Its Buyback Genesis Suddenly Vulnerable
Having now passed the anniversary of the “rising dollar”, it is interesting to see the related and continued effects on the stock bubble(s). As should be obvious by now, stock buybacks, funded via...
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Risk Appears Seriously Wounded
Stocks aren’t quite as immune to financial disruption in the middle of 2015 as they had been previously. The last major, comprehensive selloff was also in tandem with “dollar” disorder back last...
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Rationalizing Betrayal
To illustrate just how badly Monday’s selloff (and yesterday’s late day reversal) seems to have shaken core confidence in the overriding narrative (ALL IS WELL!) you need only view the drastic reversal...
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Uncomfortably Revisiting Yellen’s Bubble Doctrine
There is growing turmoil in buybacks that threatens the very fabric of the stock bubble. That was always the primary transmission of the foundation of its current manifestation, corporate debt, into...
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Vulnerable Stocks Question What Might Be Left of the Economy To Overheat
For an economy that is supposed to be on the verge of overheating, or at least moving decisively in that direction, there are an inordinate number of indications of a cyclical stall and termination...
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Rough Contours of Bond Cycle Implications
The fallout in liquidity and funding markets (subscription required) has been mostly suggested at the junk bond bubble. Prices have fallen, and many precipitously, while yields have risen. But those...
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Blatant Warning, Not Casual Dismissal
For everything that has gone wrong over the past year or so, there was and is a benign interpretation to accompany each negative factor. Oil prices were “transitory”, longer run inflation expectations...
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No Longer Overseas
I use the June 2018 eurodollar futures contract as a significant benchmark in my analysis of money markets because I feel it represents a solid cross section of sometimes conflicting influences. It’s...
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The Hope Trade Returns Though Severely Stunted As It Should Be
All it takes are the words “record high” and all economic or financial sins are forgiven and forgotten. The financial media cannot contain themselves whenever they get the chance to use the term,...
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S&P 500 EPS Drops $2 In The Past Month; Index At New High
Earlier in April, analysts were projecting $26.69 in as-reported second quarter earnings for the S&P 500. By the week of June 22, just prior to the start of Q2 earnings season, that estimate had...
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Admitting Wrong May Be Better But It Still Doesn’t Equate To Suddenly Being...
In early July, the Bank of Japan may or may not have contemplated the mother of all “stimulus.” Rumors began to fly that the Japanese central bank was, in fact, seriously considering an actual monetary...
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Risk Appears Seriously Wounded
Stocks aren’t quite as immune to financial disruption in the middle of 2015 as they had been previously. The last major, comprehensive selloff was also in tandem with “dollar” disorder back last...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Rationalizing Betrayal
To illustrate just how badly Monday’s selloff (and yesterday’s late day reversal) seems to have shaken core confidence in the overriding narrative (ALL IS WELL!) you need only view the drastic reversal...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Uncomfortably Revisiting Yellen’s Bubble Doctrine
There is growing turmoil in buybacks that threatens the very fabric of the stock bubble. That was always the primary transmission of the foundation of its current manifestation, corporate debt, into...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Vulnerable Stocks Question What Might Be Left of the Economy To Overheat
For an economy that is supposed to be on the verge of overheating, or at least moving decisively in that direction, there are an inordinate number of indications of a cyclical stall and termination...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Rough Contours of Bond Cycle Implications
The fallout in liquidity and funding markets (subscription required) has been mostly suggested at the junk bond bubble. Prices have fallen, and many precipitously, while yields have risen. But those...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Blatant Warning, Not Casual Dismissal
For everything that has gone wrong over the past year or so, there was and is a benign interpretation to accompany each negative factor. Oil prices were “transitory”, longer run inflation expectations...
View Article
